Market Reflections

Thoughts, ideas and musings on current state and evolution of financial markets

Is Housing Recovering or is the Slide Continuing?

Raymond | August 2, 2009

Latter part of last month gave us a string of good economic reports from the housing industry; leading many to think that perhaps this sector is turning around. Looking “under the cover” unfortunately does not confirm this cheerleader view. It reveals that there is nothing to cheer about in the home building sector, and that [...]

Where’s the Market Top

Raymond | June 29, 2009

This is a follow-up triggered from the comments/questions to “PUTTING IN A TOP”
For a trader it is imperative to understand the strengths and weaknesses of any tool one uses. After all, it I ones money out in risk. Refined Elliott Trader (RET) is a technical forecasting tool. It relies on the recent past market price [...]


Raymond | May 31, 2009

People keep asking me and others they trust if the stock market is topping out. A trading guru and educator I respect Joe Ross, answered “All I can say is that it sure looks like it to me.” In his post he went on to tell a story about an Elliott Wave trader he sold [...]

OPEC Increasing Production Even as Demand Remains Weak

Raymond | May 30, 2009

May 28: As expected, OPEC members, who account for 40% of global oil production decided to leave production targets unchanged from those agreed to in December 2008 and upheld in March 2009. The next meeting will be held on September 9, 2009. Compliance with set targets has fallen from 80% in Feb to below 70% [...]

Social Security and Medicare Need Money to Replace Government IOU’s

Raymond | May 14, 2009

The recession dented the financial health of Social Security and Medicare in the past year. According to trustees of these programs Social Security will start paying out more in benefits than it collects in taxes in 2016, one year sooner than projected last year, and the giant trust fund will be depleted completely by 2037, [...]

Bank Stress Tests

Raymond | May 11, 2009

Some knowledgeable folks had differing opinions on the value and meaning of bank stress tests. People who have worked for large banks and know their business inside-out are of the opinion that the only real goal for the tests was to fool the public to believe that the banks are fine.
Should the government succeed in [...]

How can you predict future from the past

Raymond | March 22, 2009

How can one develop a trading strategy based on past behavior of a market if the market changes? Good question. You can do it like the credit rating companies, fed, president’s office, IMF, … etc. by measuring arbitrary external characteristics (depth of downturn, job loss, factory utilization), comparing to the past recessions and arriving at [...]

Watch out for your “friends”

admin | March 9, 2009

“God help me with my friends, I can deal with my enemies myself.” Sounds familiar? While Americans generally have not considered government their friend, for most so far, it has not been an enemy either. Well’ perhaps this is the “change” we voted for! A journalist of a generally liberal newspaper has it much more [...]

Consistently Profitable Trading 2009 and Beyond

admin | March 1, 2009

High volatility and lower volumes continue from 2008. New president revealed his first budget with more than double deficits from previous years. He is promising to cut the deficit to half by the end of his term based on $1 – $1.6 Trillion (depending on interpretation) new taxes and 3.2% growth 2010, over 4% growth [...]

Market Change Affects Profits

admin | February 15, 2009

From trading literature we have learned that winning traders are self-disciplined. They control their feelings, and execute their trading strategy with ease and perfection. The disciplined trader is decisive. He or she acts on trading strategy signals without wavering and second guessing. Of course, a great trading strategy must produce its entry and exit signals [...]