Market Reflections

Thoughts, ideas and musings on current state and evolution of financial markets

Dumb or Dumber. Current State of the Economy

They do pull out all stops to make us believe the worst is over. Latest from Peter Orszag Obama’s budget director “Economy almost bottomed out”
Does this chart look to you as the economy has bottomed out?
20090515chartoftheday
Orzag’s, Bernanke’s, Geithner’s, … etc recent statements raise a different question: are they really dumb … or they think we are? They sure have access to the same data we do most likely some time before us. To make certain we have our “ducks lined up” let’s look some other charts, preferable compiled by other institutions. Alright, in our consumption heavy economy retail sales should give heads up on what to expect the companies to produce, right?
Does it look like it has almost bottomed out?
20090515retailsales

How about consumer sentiment?
20090515consumersentiment
Looks pretty much where it was 1980. If you are old enough to remember the miserable state of US economy then you’d probably know where we actually are.

So, take your pick and vote:

Dumb or dumber?

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About The Author

Raymond
Raymond has been active on financial markets since 1989 mostly trading commodity and currency futures and options. Trading systems and strategies, statistical and empirical modeling of markets have been his focus almost two decades now. Few projects are listed on his website. Raymond believes that every person could and should take responsibility and protect his/her finances. At least to be able to identify scams and fraud before giving life savings to a crook. It is not enough to rely on government because way too often officials (elected or other) are part of the scam themselves. Whether their reasons are campaign contributions, cushy job or lack of knowledge to understand the consequences of their actions none will help the victim. Recent succession of governments each trying to bankrupt the country faster than the previous it may very well happen that the world largest Ponzi schemes Social Security and Medicare will go down with the country. Without prudent financial decisions now one may sorely miss every penny of his/her savings lost to scam artists and “professionals”. To help out Raymond is sharing with banyantree.us users his analysis and views on variety of economic, financial market and trading issues.

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