Market Reflections

Thoughts, ideas and musings on current state and evolution of financial markets


People keep asking me and others they trust if the stock market is topping out. A trading guru and educator I respect Joe Ross, answered “All I can say is that it sure looks like it to me.” In his post he went on to tell a story about an Elliott Wave trader he sold his crystal ball years ago with instructions to turn it upside down to read it correctly. Apparently, this trader has been wrong last 25 years, so Mr. Ross is wondering he may have forgotten the instructions.
Well’ I am an Elliott Wave trader for past 6 years now. I have been right about markets many more times than Mr. Ross … and I don’t have a crystal ball. So, perhaps the problem is not in Elliott Waves, but in the ball Mr. Ross got rid of many years ago (probably for a reason ;-) )

So, what are Elliott Waves telling us about the top at this time?
The pattern from the top of ES Summer 2007 is completing its second counter wave probably close to completion by time, but is more likely to make another move up to 950 – 1100 range before the second wave completes and the third wave downward resumes.

The last incomplete wave up from March 2009 is about to get done probably in next 6 days between 950 and 1000. It is possible, but unlikely that Fri up move completed the pattern.
A drop below 876 will confirm the completion of this pattern.

We’ll see who is right or wrong (possibly both!) this time. The real Elliott Wave traders do not use crystal balls at least not since I joined this group. Rather, they use an exclusive software program that unambiguously categorizes the market price movements based on millions of chart patterns in its statistical database. That adds a degree of certainty to your trading decisions whether you have been watching the charts past 40 years (like Mr. Ross) or started just yesterday. The certainty comes in form of quantitative probabilities rather than a “… it sure look like it to me …”

You chose which you’d rather ask whether the top or bottom is in or not.

About The Author

Raymond has been active on financial markets since 1989 mostly trading commodity and currency futures and options. Trading systems and strategies, statistical and empirical modeling of markets have been his focus almost two decades now. Few projects are listed on his website. Raymond believes that every person could and should take responsibility and protect his/her finances. At least to be able to identify scams and fraud before giving life savings to a crook. It is not enough to rely on government because way too often officials (elected or other) are part of the scam themselves. Whether their reasons are campaign contributions, cushy job or lack of knowledge to understand the consequences of their actions none will help the victim. Recent succession of governments each trying to bankrupt the country faster than the previous it may very well happen that the world largest Ponzi schemes Social Security and Medicare will go down with the country. Without prudent financial decisions now one may sorely miss every penny of his/her savings lost to scam artists and “professionals”. To help out Raymond is sharing with users his analysis and views on variety of economic, financial market and trading issues.


13 Responses to “PUTTING IN A TOP?”

  1. alexbiger alexbiger says:

    C 12 июня – Днём России!

    • Raymond Raymond says:

      Sorry, alxbiger but I have no clue what you are writing about. Please advise, Raymond

  2. Wavist Wavist says:

    All he said was that 12 June is Russia Day…don’t ask me!!!

    I’ve probably gone through a thousand pages or so trying to find a RET SPX analysis so good work! I’m still a little mystified though as to our place on the larger scale – we’re in (or have just finished) Wave Y of a zigzag correction from the October low, what I don’t know is what the D3 and a (below the Wave 5) refer to, and wonder where we will be on a larger scale as the zigzag completes. Was last years decline an A wave of an ABC correction, or Wave 1 of an impulse, or was the entire impulsive decline finished at the October low to be followed by subsequently by a new bull market? Thanks a lot and keep it up!

  3. Wavist Wavist says:

    I’ve just read through again so we can cross the third option off lol but will the coming third wave down be the final C wave, or a larger Wave 3 of a 5 wave impulse? Also what would be the price projections? Thanks again, Wavist

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